Visit our Web site: www.bridgesforpeace.com | February 4, 2011 |
1. Israel Militarily Prepared for a Hostile Regime in Egypt
1. Israel Militarily Prepared for a Hostile Regime in Egypt
American military support - and the spare parts to keep the equipment running - comes with conditions attached, including that they aren't used against Washington's Israeli ally. Nevertheless, Israel never abandoned its doctrine to maintain forces capable of fighting a two-front war, even if it hadn't faced Egypt on the battlefield for over 37 years and has formally been at peace with it since 1979.
Currently, the Egyptian threat is regarded as low. The mixed male-female Caracal battalion, a crack combat unit [of the Israel Defense Forces or IDF], has proven to be efficient in border patrol [between Israel and Egypt], but even its commander has acknowledged his soldiers wouldn't be there in any conventional war setting.
At army headquarters in Tel Aviv, lights burned bright over the weekend as Defense Minister Ehud Barak convened top commanders and intelligence officers to assess the possible scenarios of the Egyptian upheaval. Sunday [January 30] morning, Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu told his Cabinet he was "anxiously monitoring" events in Egypt. "Our efforts are designed to continue and maintain stability and security in our region. I remind you that the peace between Israel and Egypt has endured for over three decades and our goal is to ensure that these relations continue."
Still, 30 years of "cold peace" have never eliminated the deep-rooted insecurities and mutual distrust between the Israeli and Egyptian armed forces. While the peace treaty has given the IDF relief in building its battle order, the military has never taken its eye off its southern neighbor, and war plans still call for a hefty reserve force to be set aside for dealing with Egypt, no matter where a confrontation may break out.
Since coming under the U.S. orbit in the wake of the 1979 peace treaty with Israel, brokered by Washington, Egypt has received US $1.3 billion in annual U.S. military aid. Egypt's army launched an ambitious modernization plan, cutting its personnel from about 600,000 to 340,000 to build a mobile and efficient force.
Egypt's most impressive achievement has been its air force, which the "Military Balance," published by the Institute for National Security Studies, describes as "the most far-reaching transformation of any air arm in the Middle East." Egypt has about 200 advanced American F-16s and some two-dozen French Mirage 2000 interceptors. It also has 100 attack helicopters, compared with just 80 in Israel, according to the Center for Strategic International Studies.
Furthermore, Egypt has some 500 multiple rocket launchers (twice the number as Israel) and nearly half of its 3,100 tanks are Western, including nearly 1,000 M1s. The Egyptian Navy is the most robust in the eastern Mediterranean basin, with 10 frigates, 4 submarines, and 23 missile boats. Egypt has had surface-to-surface missile since the early 1970s, and its Scud rockets reportedly are capable of reaching anywhere in Israel.
Egypt had in the past generation been relegated to a very marginal actor in the IDF threat assessment. But slowly, Egypt has been moving front-and-center, and its increasingly sophisticated and Western military today represents, on paper, the biggest conventional military danger to the IDF.
Israeli military officers have spoken privately about the concern over the aggressive character of the Egyptian buildup. Until now, the IDF, too, has been caught in a double bind. It sees the Egyptian army preparing to fight, yet is hesitant to call Egypt an enemy out of fear of turning it into one.
Nevertheless, watching Egypt spend US $1.3 billion on weapons every year, even if IDF intelligence believed Cairo had no clear interest in war with Israel, didn't pass quietly - particularly after annual military exercises included simulated crossings of the Suez Canal and fighting against an enemy which fit the profile of Israel.
Ironically, Egypt's modernization program has presented a scenario never faced by Israel before with its half indigenous/half U.S.-made weaponry possibly squaring off against similar Western weapons held by Egypt. Alex Fischman, long-time military analyst for Yediot Ahronot, the nation's largest daily, warned that now was the time for Israel to make "political and security modifications." These included creating additional forces for Israel's Southern Command.
In 1980, Israel received F-16 jets two years earlier than expected after the jets built for the Shah of Iran were diverted after Islamic fundamentalist overthrew him and abruptly ended the close alliance between Israel and Iran. For intelligence officers, it was a lesson never to be forgotten - that the distance between a close ally and a fundamental Islamic regime is just so short.
(Excerpts of an article by Arieh O'Sullivan, The Media Line, January 30, 2011)
Prayer Focus
Pray that the recent upheaval in Egypt will make way for a government favorable to Israel, helping to maintain peace and stability in the region.
Scripture
"Be exalted, O God, above the heavens, and Your glory above all the earth; that Your beloved may be delivered, save with Your right hand, and hear me" (Psalm 108:5-6).
2. Grad Rockets Hit near Netivot, Ofakim
During the rocket attack on Netivot - the first attack on Israel since the mass protests against Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak began a week ago - four people suffered from shock, and damage was caused to a road and a parked car. The rocket landed near a residential neighborhood. Another Grad hit the Ofakim area a few minutes later, but there were no reports of injury or damage.
"It was terrifying," an Ofakim resident said. "We heard a boom-like a nuclear bomb. We thought it was thunder; there was smoke and explosions. We're dying of fear that another wave of Grads and Kassams will begin. We have no shelters or secure rooms, and the rocket fell about 10 meters [33 feet] from the houses."
One of the people who attended a wedding in a small hall near the rocket's landing site in the Netivot area said, "There was music, then we suddenly hear a loud blast. Everyone - little children and men - ran for cover. People fell over one another. It's a miracle no one was hurt."
Another person who attended the wedding said, "Luckily, the rocket landed after the chuppah [when the couple stands under the wedding canopy], while everyone was already eating at the tables. If it had landed a few meters closer, this could have been a mass casualty event."
Meanwhile, Ofakim residents are complaining of a shortage of shelters and fortified spaces. Yaffa, who lives near the scene of the explosion, said: "I was making a cup of coffee and suddenly heard a blast. It caused me to move sideways towards the oven, and my window was cracked. I'm traumatized and afraid of sleeping. We are at God's mercies. I don't even have a protective space here. They need to reenter Gaza and launch another operation."
Last week, two Kassams were fired from Gaza. One rocket landed in an open area in the western Negev, while the other apparently landed in an open area in Gaza. There were no reports of injury or damage. Earlier this month, Egypt warned Hamas that the Israel Defense Forces may launch an offensive if the rocket attacks on Israel are not halted, as was the case in Operation Cast Lead.
(Excerpts of an article by Ynet reporters, Ilana Curiel and Shmulik Hadad contributed, Ynetnews, January 31, 2011)
Prayer Focus
Pray that the Lord will bring these attacks to an end without Israel being forced to launch an offensive to protect its citizens. Pray for the safety and peace of mind of the people of this area.
Scripture
"The eyes of the LORD are on the righteous, and His ears are open to their cry. The face of the LORD is against those who do evil, to cut off the remembrance of them from the earth. The righteous cry out, and the LORD hears, and delivers them out of all their troubles" (Psalm 34:15-17).
3. Jordanian King Replaces Prime Minister amid Protests
Jordan and Egypt are the only two nations in the Arab world that have full diplomatic ties with Israel. The protests in Jordan have generally not demanded King Abdullah's resignation, unlike in Egypt, where dismissing President Hosni Mubarak has been the protestors' primary goal.
Dr. Assaf David, an expert on Jordan from the Harry S. Truman Research Institute for the Advancement of Peace at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem, told Bridges for Peace on Tuesday (Febraury 1) that the appointment of Bakhit was expected, but the timing was not. "The king doesn't like to be seen as acting under pressure, and what he's done right now is basically acting under pressure," said David. "So that means that he assessed that things necessitate this change right now."
Perhaps the biggest question now is whether the protestors ultimately will be satisfied with the government shuffle. In Jordan, where there are millions of Palestinians, there are two primary opposition groups protesting: the traditional Islamists opposition and the Transjordanian group, which includes public sector employees and retired military officials. David believes that Bakhit will satisfy the Transjordanian opposition, which he said is "very important."
However, appeasing the Islamists with his appointment is not a given, despite the fact that David said Bakhit's reform vision is "quite similar" to that of the Islamists, even if it may be different "in terms of pace." David said that Bakhit is more open to dialogue with Hamas. "I do expect [their] getting closer to Hamas. That might be a very likely outcome of this appointment," said David. "Bakhit prefers to have closer contacts with Hamas, as he sees this Islamist force as the new face of Palestinian society, the new face of Palestinian politics. So basically he calls for and has been calling for mending fences with Hamas for the last two, three years."
While he can't predict what will happen, David said that shift to Hamas could come in a shrewd, secret manner rather than a dramatic move that is a big blow to the Fatah-led Palestinian Authority - especially as the US may not appreciate such a step from their ally. However, despite his interest in talking to Israel's enemy, Bakhit's appointment shouldn't signal a shift in Jordan's relationship with Israel. "I don't expect any change on this issue," said David.
(Excerpts of an article by Joshua Spurlock, BFP Israel Mosaic Radio, February 1, 2011)
Prayer Focus
The relationship between Israel and Jordan is critical for peace and stability. Pray that the Lord will protect that relationship and prohibit anti-Israeli Islamist groups from gaining power.
Scripture
"Our soul waits for the LORD; He is our help and our shield, for our heart shall rejoice in Him, because we have trusted in His holy name. Let Your mercy, O LORD, be upon us, just as we hope in You" (Psalm 33:20-22).
4. Bipartisan Congressional Move against Palestinian UN Resolution
In a letter to President Obama, House Republican Leader Eric Cantor, House Democratic Whip Steny Hoyer, Foreign Affairs Committee Chairwoman Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, and others called the Palestinian effort "without merit" and urged its public condemnation. The Congressional leaders argued that the resolution was an effort by Palestinian leaders to "circumvent the negotiating process." They urged the president to remind the Palestinian Authority "that any path towards statehood must be negotiated between Israelis and Palestinians, not imposed."
The resolution presents a particularly difficult conundrum for President Obama because its opponents are demanding the veto of a measure in-line with administration policy [of opposing the Israeli construction]. Palestinian leaders have warned the president that he cannot veto the resolution and expect to retain credibility as an honest broker in the Israeli-Palestinian peace process.
(By The Media Line, January 30, 2011)
Prayer Focus
Pray that this strong stand by the American Congress will result in a US veto of this Palestinian resolution.
Scripture
"For I will not trust in my bow, nor shall my sword save me. But You have saved us from our enemies, and have put to shame those who hated us. In God we boast all day long, and praise Your name forever" (Psalm 44:6-8).
5. Yemen's President Will End 30-Year Reign amid Mass Demonstrations
Yemen is the most impoverished nation in the Arab world, with most of its population living on less than US $2 per day. Illiteracy and hunger abound with a massive gap between the rich and the poor.
Because of its geographical location and the infiltration of Al-Qaeda into what it sees as a strategic base, the American government has supported Saleh despite the transparent corruption associated with his regime. When the unrest began, Saleh immediately raised the salaries of the military, apparently seeking to shore up its support as demonstrations intensify.
(By The Media Line, February 2, 2011)
Prayer Focus
Pray that the Lord will establish a government in Yemen that is not only pro-Israel and willing to cooperate with the West against terrorism but also genuinely cares for the needs of the people.
Scripture
"LORD, You have heard the desire of the humble; You will prepare their heart; You will cause Your ear to hear, to do justice to the fatherless and the oppressed, that the man of the earth may oppress no more" (Psalm 10:17-18).
6. Thousands Support "Day of Rage" against Hamas
The group's Facebook page features hate slogans directed against Hamas and its leader Ismail Haniyeh, a photo of Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas beside another photo of Che Guevara [a Marxist revolutionary executed in 1967 who has become a countercultural symbol], as well as detailed instructions on how to promote the 'day of rage' using YouTube, Twitter, emails and banners.
Tawfiq Tirawi, a former intelligence chief in the Palestinian Authority [PA] and a current member of Fatah's Central Committee, supported the group's cause. "We are a nation which fights with all means at its disposal to gain freedom and independence from the Israeli occupation, so how can we accept Hamas' despotic regime?" he said.
Senior Hamas figure Salah Bardawil said, "Tirawi's statements do not concern us; Gaza is the address for every revolution in the Arab world," adding that he was not aware of any plans for a "day of rage" in Gaza.
The Facebook page mysteriously vanished Thursday evening [February 3], but its initiators quickly set up a new one and said they would not back down from their plan to encourage Gaza's residents to take to the streets. Hamas allowed about a thousand Palestinians to hold a demonstration against Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak. "Mubarak, you must leave," the protestors chanted. However, police dispersed those protestors who called for Mubarak's resignation and arrested four of them.
(By Elior Levy, Roi Kais contributed, Ynetnews, February 4, 2011)
Prayer Focus
Pray that this call for protest in Gaza will not result in tragedy and death or in any increase in anti-Israel activity by terror groups headquartered there.
Scripture
"Deliver me, O LORD, from evil men; preserve me from violent men, who plan evil things in their hearts; they continually gather together for war" (Psalm 140:1-2).
7. Anti-Semitism in Britain Still at Alarming Levels
The CST said the figures marked the second worst year since it began monitoring in 1984. Despite a significant fall on 2009, when 926 anti-Semitic incidents were recorded-fueled by the war in Gaza-researchers said the trend of rising anti-Jewish acts was continuing. The total of 639 anti-Semitic incidents in 2010 was 17% higher than the 2008 total. Moreover, violent anti-Semitic assaults in 2010 only fell by 8% from the 124 incidents in 2009, and they rose as a proportion of the overall total, from 13% in 2009 to 18% in 2010.
CST head Mark Gardner declared: "Anti-Semitism is not the most important thing in British Jewish life, but there is clearly a significant problem. The CST, police, politicians and the government will keep working in close partnership to tackle anti-Semitism and its wider causes of bigotry and extremism." John Mann, chair of the All-Party Parliamentary Group Against Anti-Semitism, said the figures were a "sad and timely reminder." He said, "Our focus is absolute, and we will continue to do all we can to ensure these numbers go down over the coming years."
The CST said the Gaza flotilla raid in May last year and prominent Jewish festivals in September led to two spikes in the number of incidents during the year. Most of the incidents took place in London (219), followed closely by Manchester (216) as well as Hertfordshire (40) and Leeds (21). Among the incidents were 114 assaults, 83 incidents of vandalism, 385 reports of abuse and 32 direct threats.
(Excerpts of an article by World Jewish Congress, February 3, 2011)
Prayer Focus
Pray that the Lord will protect His people in every corner of the globe. Pray that Christians will rise up and fight this insidious evil on behalf of the Jewish people at every opportunity.
Scripture
"Do not keep silent, O God! Do not hold Your peace, and do not be still, O God! For behold, Your enemies make a tumult; and those who hate You have lifted up their head. They have taken crafty counsel against Your people, and consulted together against Your sheltered ones" (Psalm 83:1-3).
8. Israeli Nightmare: Muslims to Halt Gas Supply
The gas delivery to these countries was uninterrupted as well. The gas plants in the country are well secured and kept far away from the riot zones. Even if these facilities will be damaged, the Israeli electrical company has reserves to last until the plants are repaired.
Egypt supplies around 40% of Israel's gas consumption. The rest originates from a reservoir near Ashdod owned by Israel and the United States. If the Egyptian gas delivery continues as planned, the reservoir is expected to run out only by 2014.
Starting from 2014, Israel's electric company and private entrepreneurs plan to begin purchasing a mix of Egyptian gas as well as gas from Tamar reservoir [in the Mediterranean], owned by American Noble Energy gas company and Israeli businessman Yitzhak Tshuva.
Importing Egyptian gas is part of an economic benefits package signed by Israel and Egypt, which includes the Qualifying Industrial Zones (QIZ) Agreement as well as the gas agreement. The package requires that Egypt buy equipment from Israeli companies and in return be duty free from US products.
Egypt now earns nearly US $2 billion annually and is expected to earn another billion from gas delivery to Israel in the upcoming years. This is a lot of money for the struggling Egyptian market, therefore senior energy officials estimate that any secular Egyptian regime will continue to supply Israel with gas, unless the Society of the Muslim Brothers come to power.
The most extreme scenario for the Israeli gas economy will play out if an Islamic regime will gain control in Egypt. This means the gas delivery will cease to exist. If this were to happen, the electric company and private entrepreneurs will be forced to purchase gas from Israeli companies, but mainly from Tshuva. If the Egyptian supply will stop, the reservoir gas in Israel will last only until 2012, which means that the Israel market will have to function without natural gas for nearly a year until the Tamar drilling begins in 2014.
The electric company's power plants and other privately owned facilities are prepared for gas shortages. The issue is that diesel oil is far more expensive than gas and very harmful to the environment. The transformation from gas to diesel oil will also take some time. An absence of natural gas is expected to hurt the economy either way, because if Israeli gas suppliers become a monopoly, they might raise the prices above market value.
The electric company (the EMG company which supplies gas from Egypt to Israel and is partly owned by Israeli businessman Yossi Maiman); the Delek Group, controlled by Tshuva; and the Ofer brothers' company OPC are all planning on building a private power plant. They declined to comment on the issue.
(By Tani Goldstein, Ynetnews, January 30, 2011)
Prayer Focus
Pray that the Lord will protect Israel from this scenario that would be difficult for the nation but also not in the best interests of the Egyptian people.
Scripture
"Do not be afraid of sudden terror, nor of trouble from the wicked when it comes; for the LORD will be your confidence, and will keep your foot from being caught" (Proverbs 3:25-26).
9. Israel, Germany to Save Lake Victoria
In the past few years, an international effort has tried to find out what went wrong in the lake in order to try and save at least some of the many varieties of flora and fauna that can be found in and around Lake Victoria. The Israeli-German joint effort will directly and indirectly benefit a number of African states whose economy depends on Lake Victoria, including Egypt.
Lake Victoria is one of the sources of the Nile, which is also suffering from the lake's ecological disaster. Experts from Israel and Germany will join together through a project agreed upon by the foreign ministries of the two countries. Deputy Foreign Minister Danny Ayalon and German Minister for Development Dirk Niebel signed the joint letter of intent.
Lake Victoria's ecological system was severely damaged following a major contamination, and the joint venture is set to work together in the fields of water and agriculture. The main goal is to prevent a continued deterioration and contamination in the lake while developing and creating sources of income for the weaker segments of the population.
Ayalon said that the lake restoration efforts would be carried out after consultations with the Kenyan government. Israel and Germany agreed that the joint mission would leave for Kenya next month in order to move forward with the project.
(By Itamar Eichner, Ynetnews, February 1, 2011)
Prayer Focus
Pray that the relationship between Israel and Germany will continue to strengthen through this and other joint project as well as diplomatic channels.
Scripture
"I will instruct you and teach you in the way you should go; I will guide you with My eye" (Psalm 32:8).
Bridges for Peace - 24 Hour Prayer Calendar Free registration - Signup today ! Isaiah 62:6-7 - I have set watchmen upon thy walls, O Jerusalem, [which] shall never hold their peace day nor night: ye that make mention of the LORD, keep not silence, And give him no rest, till he establish, and till he make Jerusalem a praise in the earth. |
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